Looking at the PPIC poll ‘s score of the governor’s race in the Republican primary, some might wonder if Steve Poizner is finished. I’m not one of them.
Even though Poizner is 30 points behind Meg Whitman this is no time to close the books on the campaign. Voters don’t pay close attention until a month or so out from Election Day. The recent heralded victory of Republican Scott Brown in the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race is only the most recent example of a candidate coming from way down in the polls to snatch victory. Brown’s winning surge occurred over the last ten days of the campaign.
Richard Riordan, the former mayor of Los Angeles, was the prohibitive favorite to capture the 2002 Republican gubernatorial nomination. One month before the March primary election, Riordan was 33 points ahead of eventual winner Bill Simon.
Of course, in that race Simon had the benefit of Democratic Governor Gray Davis dropping millions of dollars in ads against Riordan during the Republican primary questioning Riordan’s position on abortion rights, the death penalty and his stands as mayor.
On this page, John Wildermuth hinted Jerry Brown might need to follow Davis’s example and unload on Meg Whitman during the primary.
There is plenty of time between now and Election Day for Poizner to close the gap. He could catch fire with the voters on a specific issue or theme. Whitman could make a glaring mistake or say something damaging to her campaign. She could perform poorly in debates. Poizner’s statewide ads, when they come, could capture the emotions of the voters. Poizner is working the grassroots hard hoping they will show up for him on Election Day.
Of course, all the pitfalls that might derail the Whitman campaign also could trip up the Poizner campaign, as well. The point being there is plenty of time for either side to screw up or capture attention and change the poll numbers.
However, Poizner is running behind now. His ads will have to come soon before the hole he has to climb out of grows deeper. But, no credible candidate should be counted out more than four months from the vote.
As that great philosopher, Yogi Berra, put it: :It ain’t over till its over.” Or at least until a thirty point lead holds going into the last week or so before the election.