Steve Poizner’s campaign released an internal poll showing Poizner closing to 10 points behind Meg Whitman in the Republican gubernatorial primary setting off dueling press conferences between the campaigns to discuss the meaning of the poll.
Poizner’s people emphasized momentum; Whitman’s people talked electability.
Let us talk about a wild ride until Election Day for those who revel in political horse races.
This Republican race will continue on the path of charges and countercharges as the battle heats up and absentee ballots go out on May 10. The winner could still prevail by double digits but that won’t forestall hot rhetoric over the next month.
It is always hard to judge how well internal polls reflect the voting public. The Poizner poll tested 800 likely GOP Primary voters interviewed between May 2 and 4. Of course, GOP voters won’t be the only ones deciding this race. Whitman spokesmen said that they anticipate 8 to 10% of the voters will be Decline to State voters who ask for a Republican ballot.
Poizner pollster Neil Newhouse said Whitman’s favorable to unfavorable rating at 29% favorable; 49% unfavorable, looked like Martha Coakley’s numbers, Scott Brown’s losing Massachusetts U.S. Senate opponent. Newhouse did Brown’s polling.
Newhouse said Poizner stands at 30% favorable, 39% unfavorable.
Whitman consultant, Mike Murphy, promised to work to increase the unfavorable side of Poizner’s numbers when he sends millions of mail pieces that will question why Poizner is even in the Republican primary because of his liberal record.
The question of electability against Jerry Brown in the Fall may become a dominant theme of the political talk over the next month. Whitman’s team argues Poizner cannot defeat Brown because he has alienated Latino voters with his "one note campaign" about illegal immigration. They also charged that Poizner is seen as part of the problem as a statewide elected official.
Poizner’s consultant, Stuart Stevens, countered that Whitman was following the path of business CEOs who try to jump to the top spot in California government in their first electoral effort and fall far short after some initial gains because the novelty of their candidacy.
Stevens argued that Poizner is most unlike the incumbent governor and voters will react well to his candidacy. Yet, I expect we will be reading about Poizner comparing himself favorably to the current governor in his earlier run for office in those mail pieces Murphy promised.
The battle is clearly joined, which is what Poizner was hoping for. Whitman knew her early huge lead was not sustainable, but she will now concentrate on her Republican rival instead of opening early salvos against Jerry Brown, which would have been her druthers.
Internal polls need validation from independent pollsters before the change in the political winds can be confirmed. There are plenty of private polls in the field, or soon will be, including one sponsored by the Small Business Action Committee. So we will see how the new numbers the Poizner campaign revealed Wednesday stand.