Bring on the autopsy. If the polling is any indication, California voters will defeat the five budget balancing measures, Propositions 1A through 1E, on May 19. Not only do both the Field and PPIC polls show the measures losing, but opinion seems to be hardening against them. According PPIC, those voters following the measures closest are the most vigorously opposed. Fifty two percent of likely voters oppose Proposition 1A, the spending cap/tax measure. But among those following the measure most closely, 65 percent are opposed and only 29 percent are in favor.
If the measures go down, two factors will be at play. The voters do not seem to believe the legislature is capable of reforming itself, thus they are unimpressed with the “rainy day” spending cap Gov. Schwarzenegger and proponents have pushed so hard for.
And they are opposed to the additional burden of higher sales taxes, a higher car tax and increased income taxes, all of which fall on the state’s voters. As part of the budget compromise, the legislature declined to impose any industry specific taxes (no doubt to not arouse industry opposition) and instead raised broad based taxes. But the voters have already turned down higher taxes on rich people, oil companies and tobacco companies – so why did the legislature think voters would support higher taxes on themselves.
So who are the winners and losers if the measures fail? That’s easy. Everyone is a loser. Republicans said they were for a spending cap, but they are not supporting Proposition 1A, that has a spending cap. GOP anti-tax activists say it won’t hold down spending, but how do they know if it is not tried.
Legislative Republicans ousted their leadership over the tax increases and are recalling members who voted for the tax package. But in the process, they alienated themselves from business, which wants the ballot measures, and the governor, who is the only one who can raise any money for the state GOP (not that he cares about that anymore.) Will the new GOP legislative leaders be players in what happens next? Probably not.
Democrats are losers in the short run; they must still govern and make the draconian cuts that will be necessary if the measures fail. But they can be winners in the long run. The tax increases will now expire in 2011, but if Democrats under new party boss John Burton put their minds to it they can win two thirds control in both houses, and in 2011 they can make the tax cuts permanent, and do so without worrying about a spending cap. That’s having your cake and eating it too.
Given plummeting GOP registration throughout the state, all the Democrats need to do is spend $5 to $10 million in a half dozen Assembly and Senate seats in 2010 – dollars they can easily raise — and they will take full control of both houses of the legislature. In 1975, when Jerry Brown first became governor, Democrats had effective two thirds margins in both houses; funny if Jerry Brown becomes governor in 2010 and this is all repeated 36 years later.
Finally, Gov. Schwarzenegger is certainly a loser too, but he also has a window of opportunity. His numbers have plummeted largely because the public no longer believes him. He said he would not raise taxes and he did so. There is no chance of passing another tax bill, but liberal Democrats will concoct 41-vote fee bills that do the same thing. They passed one in January to impose an oil severance tax and a gas tax fee that Schwarzenegger vetoed.
Once the people have spoken, Schwarzenegger should say no to any new taxes, especially those disguised as fees. If the voters on May 19 vote for draconian budget cuts, the governor should see that they get them.