Prop 25, the November ballot initiative to permit budget bills to pass with a majority vote instead of 2/3, also represents something of a referendum on two recent voter-approved measures, Prop 11 and Prop 14.
Prop 11, the redistricting reform initiative passed in 2008, and Prop 14, the just-approved top-two primary, were pushed through in hopes of creating a legislature that would be more effective, representative, and ultimately trustworthy.
But do voters, having changed how legislative districts are drawn and candidates are elected, feel better enough about the legislature to give them more room to maneuver?
Prop 25, by making it easier for legislative majorities to pass a budget, calls that question.
Longtime readers know I’m sympathetic to Prop 25’s goal of removing the 2/3-supermajority requirement from the state’s budget system. (I’d like Prop 25 even more if it removed the supermajority requirements for taxes, as its opponents claim it does — claims that seem dubious when one reads the plain language of the measure).
And I think that the state’s reform community has been right about one thing: creating a more effective and more representative legislature through political reform must come before we make changes to the budget system.
However: as a matter of politics and of reality, I fear that Prop 11 and Prop 14 have not done enough to change the system and give voters the confidence in the legislature they need to go ahead and approve something like Prop 25.
Part of the trouble is that the reforms in Prop 11 and Prop 14 have yet to take effect. The other part of the trouble is that the two measures, for all their virtues, are unlikely to make big changes in how our legislature operates. The intense partisanship of both parties and the sorting of Californians into like-minded communities will make it extraordinarily difficult to produce more competitive legislative districts. And there’s little evidence that Prop 14’s change in primary rules will produce more than a few moderates-and it’s far from clear that electing more moderates will fix the legislature.
Prop 25, in a way, suffers from the same disease as Prop 11 and Prop 14-it’s a fine, but not quite good enough to change much measure. In fact, by making it easier to pass spending while keeping the 2/3 restriction for new revenues that makes it so difficult to raise taxes, Prop 25 could make deficits worse.
What would be a better approach? Begin with a deeper change in legislative elections, by scrapping our current system of single-member districts elected in first-past-the-post plurality contests. Replace it with a system of multi-member districts that represent the distinct regions of California and elect at least some of those members proportionally, so that everyone has representation and so that the parties compete everywhere.
Once those sorts of reforms make the legislature more representative, then you move on the supermajorities – and not just the budget two-thirds rule, but similar rules that limit the legislature’s room to maneuver on tax hikes, education spending, local government funding and transportation.
For now, don’t hold your breath waiting for 11 and 14 to add up to 25.