With Darrell Issa and Duncan Hunter running away from the presumptive nominee, there is a panic at the GOP’s congressional committee, the NRCC. It’s very unlikely that Democrats sweep the 30 seats needed to give Nancy Pelosi the gavel again, but there are seats in play that weren’t a few months ago.
Nobody expected this conversation in this decade following the 2001 redistricting, but here we are. I’ve written before that Democrats were unlikely to capture the House until 2022, but that assertion now must be questioned.
However, nobody expected the number of California Republican members to be in the low-to-mid 50s after the primary. Money needs to go now to Calvert, Hunter, Knight, Valadao, and Walters. These are mostly safe GOP districts (aside from Knight), but the signals are debunking the conventional wisdom. And, then there is Issa, who had perhaps the worst showing for what should be a safe Republican seat, but also is the wealthiest member of Congress.
Meanwhile, Dems need to watch out for Aguilar, Bera, Costa, and Ruiz.
I don’t really expect any of those seats to flip, but the dominoes game is affected.