President Donald Trump’s infrastructure proposal could complicate California Republican strategy to drive voters to the polls in November to vote on a gas tax repeal. And, in turn that might undermine Trump’s hopes of keeping the House of Representatives in Republican hands.
Fearing the lack of a formidable Republican candidate in either the governor’s race or the U.S. Senate contest to drive GOP voters to the polls, congressional Republicans are helping fund the gas tax repeal initiative. The thinking goes that the anti-tax measure will convince Republican voters to show up in November and vote against the gas tax while also casting their ballot to keep their Republican representative in Congress.
However, Trump’s infrastructure plan relies heavily on state and local governments carrying the funding load for the infrastructure improvements. Under the proposal, the federal government would chip in $200 billion of the $1.5 trillion the plan calls for. The rest is up to state and local governments.
California’s recent gas tax and vehicle fee increase could go toward the state’s portion of the federal infrastructure package. While local Republicans object to the gas tax increase and urge repeal, the Republican president may be whistling a different tune. Trump still has the approval of California GOP voters. According to the recent Public Policy Institute of California poll, 76% of Republican voters support the president.
The tax message could further be muddied by the president’s interest in a 25-cent gas tax increase, if reports of his attraction to such a toll prove to be correct.
California Republican representatives face the possibility of opposing both a federal and state gas tax but at the same time putting infrastructure improvements in jeopardy while bucking the president and his positive ratings amongst state GOP voters.
Will those California Republicans voters separate Trump’s call for local tax revenue supporting infrastructure improvements from California’s recent gas tax increase?
Of course, this question plays out depending on the gas tax repeal making the ballot and the federal infrastructure plan becoming law. The scenario changes if one of the pieces fails.
In the meantime, state authorities are pushing ahead with road improvements to convince voters that rescinding the tax authorization would be a mistake. Expect that immediate improvements will all be made to the road and highway systems. Those other transportation systems that will also benefit from the gas tax increase like new bicycle lanes probably will be pushed off until after the election so they cannot be used in negative campaign ads in the campaign to repeal the tax.
The fact that roadwork has been sped up to meet the challenge of the still circulating initiative is just the most recent example of the mere introduction of an initiative proposal driving public policy in California.