California may have one of its closest elections ever this November. Most polling shows a virtual dead heat for both governor and senator. So turnout may well be the deciding factor this fall, and the apparent decision of one county not to encourage absentee voting could easily be a deciding factor in who wins.
There is no question that absentee voting, especially by permanent absentee voters, has become a very popular way of casting your ballot. Nearly 58 percent of voters in the June primary cast their ballots by mail (absentee.) The percentage of Californians voting absentee has risen in nearly every election over the past 30 years.
It’s not hard to understand why. Permanent absentee voters have a whole month to send in their ballots. They can decide how to vote at leisure, making their decisions over the kitchen table. Election Day voters must find their precinct, may have to stand in line, and must make their decisions in a polling booth.
But in Los Angeles County absentee voting is markedly less than the statewide average. In June, only 36 percent of Los Angeles voters cast absentee ballots, and Los Angeles had the lowest voter turnout of all 58 California counties, only 23.4 percent against 33.3 percent statewide. Its percentage of absentee voters was third lowest among the counties. Clearly absentee voting is now a turnout generator; the higher the absentee rate, the higher the county turnout.
It is not entirely clear why Los Angles has so much lower absentee turnout; it may be that the county registrar does not encourage absentee voting while other registrars around the state do. It may be that Angelinos simply do not know they can vote absentee. But whatever the reason, this is potentially crucial issue this fall.
Los Angeles is key to Democratic hopes; it has California’s largest pool of Democratic voters. However, Los Angeles historically turns out at a lower percent than the state as a whole in non-presidential election years. In 2006, statewide turnout was 56 percent; in Los Angeles County it was 52 percent. In 2002, it was statewide 51 percent, Los Angeles 45 percent. On the other hand, Los Angeles was right at the state turnout in the presidential years, 2004 and 2008.
So Democrats will begin with a problem this year in that Los Angles turnout will probably once again be below state average. And that will be exacerbated by the lower absentee vote in Los Angeles. And unlike past years, the Republicans will have the money and the machinery to take advantage of this.
There is no question that the Meg Whitman campaign will "chase" absentee voters, both the permanent absentee voters who will receive a ballot without even asking for it, and those who request an absentee ballot. After all, this is likely to be a majority of the turnout. Absentee voting was much higher this June in suburban counties; there is a huge trough of Republican voters there for the mining.
There is an interesting sidelight to the apparent failure of Los Angeles officials to encourage absentee voting; it discriminates against minority voters, since the largest number of minority, especially Latino voters, is in Los Angeles.
In the large suburban counties where election clerks have encouraged permanent absentee voting, voters will have a whole month to cast their ballots; in heavily minority Los Angles, they will have 13 hours on Election Day. Voting is much easier for citizens in high absentee counties than it is in Los Angeles.
It is anticipated that minority turnout will be lower in 2010 than it was during the Obama election of 2008. If so this will be one reason why. It is too late to increase permanent absentee voters in Los Angeles for this election, but those interested in a larger turnout of voters ought to question why Los Angeles is not on board with the very popular practice of absentee voting.